Ukraine’s ATACMS strike escalates tensions in Russia-Ukraine war

Ukraine has carried out its first known attack using ATACMS missiles on a military facility in Russia’s Bryansk region, according to Russia’s Defence Ministry. The strike targeted a warehouse in the city of Karachev, approximately 115 kilometres from Ukraine’s border. Ukraine’s General Staff confirmed the attack but refused to disclose the type of missile used, citing classified information.

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The strike follows the Biden administration’s approval of Kyiv’s limited use of ATACMS to target sites within Russia, marking a significant shift in the conflict. Russia’s Defence Ministry claimed that five missiles were intercepted, and no casualties were reported.

Putin Tightens Nuclear Doctrine

In response to escalating tensions, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing nuclear weapons to be used in retaliation for conventional attacks that threaten Russia’s sovereignty. Aggression by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear power will also be treated as a joint attack, according to the revised doctrine.

Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, emphasised that Russia retains the right to use nuclear weapons if its territorial integrity or sovereignty is critically threatened. The announcement echoes warnings from the Russian leader against Western nations providing long-range weapons to Ukraine.

Economic Impact and Market Reaction

The heightened tensions sent shockwaves through global financial markets. Investors turned to safe-haven assets, pushing up government bonds and currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Yields on US Treasuries dropped by six to seven basis points, while the yen gained 0.8% against the dollar.

Trump’s Potential Impact

With the war entering its 1,000th day, the prospect of Donald Trump returning to office has raised questions about the future of US support for Ukraine. Trump has promised to quickly end the war but has not provided details on how he would achieve this. Analysts speculate that his administration could significantly reduce aid to Kyiv, potentially forcing Ukraine to compromise with Russia.

As both sides brace for potential negotiations, Ukraine continues to argue for the ability to strike Russian air bases and other critical infrastructure. Ukrainian officials believe such capabilities are essential to counter Russian missile and drone attacks, which have repeatedly disrupted power and water supplies across the country.

G20 Summit Amid the Conflict

The strike on Bryansk coincided with the G20 summit in Brazil. Neither Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy nor Putin attended the meeting, which brought together world leaders to discuss global challenges. Zelenskiy addressed Ukraine’s parliament the same day, calling for unity and reaffirming the nation’s resolve to defend its territory. “While the whole world waits for a miracle from Trump, we must continue to work hard,” he told lawmakers, without mentioning the overnight strikes or the use of US-supplied missiles.

Growing Risks of Escalation

Russia has consistently warned the West against enabling Ukraine to carry out deep strikes on its territory. The use of ATACMS missiles adds a new dimension to the conflict, raising concerns of a broader confrontation involving nuclear-armed nations. The situation remains volatile, with both sides ramping up efforts to strengthen their positions ahead of any potential peace talks. Experts fear that further escalation may lead to a bigger war in the region.